Why Periscope can become tomorrow’s Vine

I wouldn’t say I’m a Twitter power user but I do like the service. Among the biggest value propositions I can find is having access to people you normally wouldn’t. Celebrities and “influencers” tend to be responsive on Twitter. Comments on discussions are often seen and replied to by prominent people. The other aspect that makes Twitter unique the real-time element.

However user growth keeps hurting it and any additional features/products it tries to build and grow.

Two clear examples are the acquisitions of Vine and Periscope.

The chart above outlines the historical trend of google searches for both of these products. While this is only a data point and not a full reflection of user and engagement statistics it shows the potential for growth of the platforms. Both of these have seen inability to increase number of active users which makes or breaks any video sharing/video streaming platform.

Earlier this week it was announced that Vine would be shutting down. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Even though some level of integration with incorporating vine loops into Twitter profiles, Vine did not enjoy the exponential user growth that the acquisition should have enabled.

The Periscope acquisition was mostly a defensive move to curtail the growth and prominence of a now defunct live video streaming app Meerkat. Meerkat initially used Twitter’s platform to inform people when its users were broadcasting and allowed early on to catch on. However once Twitter saw this as a threat and cut off access to its API. It quickly acquired Periscope to ensure it would not be left out of this type of service like was done with Pictures (Instagram).

Don’t get me wrong, Periscope not has pulled its weight since it was acquired. Its engagement numbers have increased significantly. Earlier this year many argued that it could be Twitter’s life line.

However, I have a more pessimistic view. Whether you like it or not, Facebook is the largest social media platform. That means that any “live” experience will be more successful on it. Broadcasters want a larger and more engaged audiences. What this means is that for any new user they can count on at least 100 Facebook friends to tune in. Periscope on the other hand expects for your audience to have an account so they can be notified. Chances are a lower proportion of your friends, family and co-workers will be signed up for it.

Facebook’s stronghold on social media now spans to messaging (Facebook Messanger & WhatsApp), Instagram (Picture & Video + Stories). Any incumbent will struggle to break in. With its engineering resources Facebook can mirror any new service in a very short amount of time and deploy it to over 1.6 billion people at once (Marketplace, Events). This are exciting times in consumer facing digital products but wrestling with established tech giants will be difficult for new startups going forward.